Florida Senate Special Election 2026: Live Results
The Florida Senate Special Election 2026 is on November 3, 2026. Angie Nixon (Democrat) faces Republican Ashley Moody (incumbent). The seat is currently held by Republicans. VoteTide rates the race Likely R. Prediction markets give Ashley Moody a 88% chance of winning. The average of the last 5 polls has Ashley Moody ahead by 6.0 points. The last polls in Florida close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
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Updated Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:27:09 GMT
Results
No votes have been reported yet. Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Candidates
- Angie Nixon (Democrat)
- Ashley Moody (Republican, incumbent)
Odds
- Kalshi: Democrat 13%, Republican 88%
- Polymarket: Democrat 12%, Republican 89%
Rating: Likely R
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Nixon | Moody |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | October 31 – November 2, 2026 | 44% | 51% |
| Big Data Poll | October 26–30, 2026 | 45% | 52% |
| Stetson University | October 26–30, 2026 | 45% | 49% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 28–29, 2026 | 43% | 49% |
| Political Matrix/The Listener Group | October 26–28, 2026 | 36% | 42% |
| St. Pete Polls | October 25–27, 2026 | 45% | 49% |
| ActiVote | October 17–27, 2026 | 47% | 53% |
| New York Times/Siena University | October 19–25, 2026 | 44% | 50% |
| RedBox Research (D) | October 20–23, 2026 | 43% | 50% |
| Echelon Insights (R) | October 16–23, 2026 | 43% | 51% |
What's at stake
For the country
- This seat is held by Republicans. A Democratic win would be a flip, one of the 4 net gains Democrats need to reach 51 seats and take control.
- A Republican hold keeps it in the column that protects the current 53-seat majority.
- Senate control decides which judges and cabinet nominees are confirmed and whether the President's bills can pass.
For Florida
- Senators vote on every federal law, confirm Supreme Court justices, federal judges and cabinet members, and ratify treaties. Terms last six years.
- Ashley Moody is the incumbent. Incumbents bring seniority, name recognition and committee roles; challengers argue for a fresh start.
Angie Nixon
- Supporters say a Democratic senator would push to lower health-care costs and protect the Affordable Care Act.
- They argue for restoring federal abortion protections and expanding voting access.
- They favour raising taxes on the highest earners and corporations to fund programs.
Ashley Moody
- Supporters say a Republican senator would keep taxes low and protect recent tax cuts.
- They argue for tighter border security and stricter immigration enforcement.
- They favour expanding domestic energy production and cutting federal regulation.
Arguments are summarised at party level from each side's stated priorities, not quotes from the candidates.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running in the Florida Senate Special Election 2026?
Angie Nixon (D), Ashley Moody (R, incumbent).
Who is favored to win the Florida senate race?
Prediction markets give Ashley Moody a 88% chance. VoteTide's rating is Likely R.
When do polls close in Florida?
On November 3, 2026, the last polls in Florida close at 8 p.m. Eastern. The first results usually appear within an hour.
Where do these Florida results come from?
Vote counts come from official election sources as they are published (and from the AP when configured). Odds come from Kalshi and Polymarket, and polls from public polling tables. The page refreshes every minute.
Florida at a glance
- 2024 presidential result: Trump +13.1
- Electoral votes: 30
- U.S. House seats: 28