Michigan Senate Election 2026: Live Results
The Michigan Senate Election 2026 is on November 3, 2026. Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) faces Republican Mike Rogers. The seat is currently held by Democrats and is open this year. VoteTide rates the race Lean D. Prediction markets give Abdul El-Sayed a 80% chance of winning. The average of the last 5 polls has Abdul El-Sayed ahead by 5.6 points. The last polls in Michigan close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
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Updated Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:27:08 GMT
Results
No votes have been reported yet. Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
Candidates
- Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat)
- Mike Rogers (Republican)
Odds
- Kalshi: Democrat 79%, Republican 21%
- Polymarket: Democrat 81%, Republican 20%
Rating: Lean D
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | El-Sayed | Rogers |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | October 31 – November 2, 2026 | 51% | 49% |
| Emerson College | October 31 – November 1, 2026 | 51% | 45% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | October 31 – November 1, 2026 | 51% | 41% |
| Research Co. | October 30 – November 1, 2026 | 48% | 46% |
| AtlasIntel | October 28 – November 1, 2026 | 54% | 46% |
| New York Times/Siena University | October 23 – November 1, 2026 | 53% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | October 28–29, 2026 | 49% | 44% |
| YouGov | October 26–29, 2026 | 51% | 47% |
| Upswing Research (D) | October 24–28, 2026 | 50% | 45% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | October 26–27, 2026 | 51% | 44% |
What's at stake
For the country
- This seat is held by Democrats. Losing it would make the path to a majority harder: they would then need 5 flips elsewhere.
- For Republicans it is a pick-up chance that would add a cushion to their majority.
- Senate control decides which judges and cabinet nominees are confirmed and whether the President's bills can pass.
For Michigan
- Senators vote on every federal law, confirm Supreme Court justices, federal judges and cabinet members, and ratify treaties. Terms last six years.
- It is an open seat, so there is no incumbent advantage this year.
Abdul El-Sayed
- Supporters say a Democratic senator would push to lower health-care costs and protect the Affordable Care Act.
- They argue for restoring federal abortion protections and expanding voting access.
- They favour raising taxes on the highest earners and corporations to fund programs.
Mike Rogers
- Supporters say a Republican senator would keep taxes low and protect recent tax cuts.
- They argue for tighter border security and stricter immigration enforcement.
- They favour expanding domestic energy production and cutting federal regulation.
Arguments are summarised at party level from each side's stated priorities, not quotes from the candidates.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running in the Michigan Senate Election 2026?
Abdul El-Sayed (D), Mike Rogers (R).
Who is favored to win the Michigan senate race?
Prediction markets give Abdul El-Sayed a 80% chance. VoteTide's rating is Lean D.
When do polls close in Michigan?
On November 3, 2026, the last polls in Michigan close at 9 p.m. Eastern. The first results usually appear within an hour.
Where do these Michigan results come from?
Vote counts come from official election sources as they are published (and from the AP when configured). Odds come from Kalshi and Polymarket, and polls from public polling tables. The page refreshes every minute.
Michigan at a glance
- 2024 presidential result: Trump +1.4
- Electoral votes: 15
- U.S. House seats: 13