Montana Senate Election 2026: Live Results
The Montana Senate Election 2026 is on November 3, 2026. Alani Bankhead (Democrat) faces Republican Kurt Alme. The seat is currently held by Republicans and is open this year. VoteTide rates the race Likely R. Prediction markets give Kurt Alme a 95% chance of winning. The average of the last 5 polls has Kurt Alme ahead by 23.2 points. The last polls in Montana close at 10 p.m. Eastern.
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Updated Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:27:08 GMT
Results
No votes have been reported yet. Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern.
Candidates
- Alani Bankhead (Democrat)
- Seth Bodnar (Independent, backed by Democrats)
- Kurt Alme (Republican)
Odds
- Kalshi: Democrat 10%, Republican 90%
- Polymarket: Democrat 0%, Republican 100%
Rating: Likely R
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Bankhead | Alme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | October 22–23, 2026 | 10% | 38% |
| Montana State University Billings | October 5–21, 2026 | 21% | 30% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | October 15–18, 2026 | 21% | 46% |
| Peak Insights (R) | October 7–12, 2026 | 12% | 44% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | October 6–8, 2026 | 13% | 35% |
| American Pulse Research | September 19–24, 2026 | 19% | 45% |
| Quantus Insights (R) | September 14–15, 2026 | 23% | 44% |
| Aspect Strategic | September 7–15, 2026 | 14% | 44% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | August 27 – September 7, 2026 | 16% | 38% |
| Peak Insights (R) | August 23–25, 2026 | 19% | 44% |
What's at stake
For the country
- This seat is held by Republicans. A Democratic win would be a flip, one of the 4 net gains Democrats need to reach 51 seats and take control.
- A Republican hold keeps it in the column that protects the current 53-seat majority.
- Senate control decides which judges and cabinet nominees are confirmed and whether the President's bills can pass.
For Montana
- Senators vote on every federal law, confirm Supreme Court justices, federal judges and cabinet members, and ratify treaties. Terms last six years.
- It is an open seat, so there is no incumbent advantage this year.
Alani Bankhead
- Alani Bankhead runs as an independent and is not bound to either party's platform; Democrats are backing the campaign.
Kurt Alme
- Supporters say a Republican senator would keep taxes low and protect recent tax cuts.
- They argue for tighter border security and stricter immigration enforcement.
- They favour expanding domestic energy production and cutting federal regulation.
Arguments are summarised at party level from each side's stated priorities, not quotes from the candidates.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running in the Montana Senate Election 2026?
Alani Bankhead (D), Seth Bodnar (I), Kurt Alme (R).
Who is favored to win the Montana senate race?
Prediction markets give Kurt Alme a 95% chance. VoteTide's rating is Likely R.
When do polls close in Montana?
On November 3, 2026, the last polls in Montana close at 10 p.m. Eastern. The first results usually appear within an hour.
Where do these Montana results come from?
Vote counts come from official election sources as they are published (and from the AP when configured). Odds come from Kalshi and Polymarket, and polls from public polling tables. The page refreshes every minute.
Montana at a glance
- 2024 presidential result: Trump +19.9
- Electoral votes: 4
- U.S. House seats: 2
Other Montana races: House