Texas Senate Election 2026: Live Results
The Texas Senate Election 2026 is on November 3, 2026. James Talarico (Democrat) faces Republican Ken Paxton. The seat is currently held by Republicans and is open this year. VoteTide rates the race Toss-up. Prediction markets give James Talarico a 73% chance of winning. The average of the last 5 polls has James Talarico ahead by 3.6 points. The last polls in Texas close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
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Updated Tue, 03 Nov 2026 14:27:08 GMT
Results
No votes have been reported yet. Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
Candidates
- James Talarico (Democrat)
- Ken Paxton (Republican)
Incumbent John Cornyn lost renomination.
Odds
- Kalshi: Democrat 72%, Republican 28%
- Polymarket: Democrat 74%, Republican 26%
Rating: Toss-up
Latest polls
| Pollster | Dates | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | October 31 – November 2, 2026 | 49% | 46% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | October 31 – November 1, 2026 | 48% | 48% |
| Emerson College | October 31 – November 1, 2026 | 50% | 48% |
| AtlasIntel | October 28 – November 1, 2026 | 51% | 45% |
| New York Times/Siena University | October 27 – November 1, 2026 | 50% | 43% |
| Kreate Strategies | October 27–30, 2026 | 48% | 45% |
| YouGov | October 26–29, 2026 | 51% | 47% |
| Quantus Insights | October 26–28, 2026 | 48% | 49% |
| ActiVote | October 22–28, 2026 | 52% | 48% |
| A2 Insights | October 23–27, 2026 | 50% | 47% |
What's at stake
For the country
- This seat is held by Republicans. A Democratic win would be a flip, one of the 4 net gains Democrats need to reach 51 seats and take control.
- A Republican hold keeps it in the column that protects the current 53-seat majority.
- Senate control decides which judges and cabinet nominees are confirmed and whether the President's bills can pass.
For Texas
- Senators vote on every federal law, confirm Supreme Court justices, federal judges and cabinet members, and ratify treaties. Terms last six years.
- It is an open seat, so there is no incumbent advantage this year.
James Talarico
- Supporters say a Democratic senator would push to lower health-care costs and protect the Affordable Care Act.
- They argue for restoring federal abortion protections and expanding voting access.
- They favour raising taxes on the highest earners and corporations to fund programs.
Ken Paxton
- Supporters say a Republican senator would keep taxes low and protect recent tax cuts.
- They argue for tighter border security and stricter immigration enforcement.
- They favour expanding domestic energy production and cutting federal regulation.
Arguments are summarised at party level from each side's stated priorities, not quotes from the candidates.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running in the Texas Senate Election 2026?
James Talarico (D), Ken Paxton (R).
Who is favored to win the Texas senate race?
Prediction markets give James Talarico a 73% chance. VoteTide's rating is Toss-up.
When do polls close in Texas?
On November 3, 2026, the last polls in Texas close at 9 p.m. Eastern. The first results usually appear within an hour.
Where do these Texas results come from?
Vote counts come from official election sources as they are published (and from the AP when configured). Odds come from Kalshi and Polymarket, and polls from public polling tables. The page refreshes every minute.
Texas at a glance
- 2024 presidential result: Trump +13.7
- Electoral votes: 40
- U.S. House seats: 38