The issues voters say matter most, tracked with public data that updates on its own. Each card gives the latest number, how it has changed and why it can matter at the ballot box. The numbers come straight from the sources. Our view, from the right, is in the box marked “Our take.”
Updated Nov 4, 10:24 AM EST · Feeds the 2028 forecast
Polls
Presidential approval
−26net approval (36% approve, 62% disapprove)
−9.6 pts vs. four weeks earlier
Net approval, weekly averageApr 2026 – Oct 2026
On average, 36% of Americans approve of the president's job performance and 62% disapprove, across the latest poll from each of 2 pollsters (including RMG Research, Pew Research Center).
Why it matters: A president's approval has historically tracked how their party does in the next election, even when the president is not on the ballot. It is one of the inputs to our forecast.
Consumer prices, % change from a year earlierJul 2024 – Sep 2026
Consumer prices were 3.7% higher in September than a year earlier, a faster pace than the month before. Leaving out food and energy, which swing the most, prices rose 2.6%. The Federal Reserve aims for about 2%.
Why it matters: Prices are consistently near the top of voters' concerns in surveys, and the party in the White House tends to get the credit or the blame. Inflation is an input to our forecast.
U.S. crude oil (WTI), dollars per barrelOct 2025 – Oct 2026
U.S. crude oil traded at about $103 a barrel on Oct 27, 2026. Oil is the most direct way the conflict reaches voters at home, through gasoline and shipping costs.
The United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect in April, followed by further rounds of strikes and retaliation over the summer.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the route for roughly a fifth of the world's oil, has been heavily disrupted, which is why oil and gasoline prices are part of this story at home.
Why it matters: Foreign conflicts can rally support for a president early on and weigh on it if they drag on or push up prices at home. Voters' views on the war tend to split sharply by party.
$4.15a gallon of regular, national average (Nov 2, 2026)
Down $0.20 from a month earlier
Regular gasoline, dollars per gallonNov 2024 – Nov 2026
A gallon of regular gasoline averaged $4.15 nationally in the week of Nov 2, 2026, compared with $3.04 a year earlier.
Why it matters: Gas is the price most Americans see every week, so it shapes how people feel about the economy more than its share of spending suggests.
The unemployment rate was 4.2% in September, down from 4.4% a year earlier.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment has historically been one of the clearest warning signs for the party in power. The change over the past year is an input to our forecast.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.24% in the week of Oct 29, 2026. Rates follow the Federal Reserve and the bond market and drive what buying a home costs.
Why it matters: Housing costs have become a major issue for younger voters, and both parties now campaign on affordability.
48consumer sentiment index (September; 1966 = 100)
Down 7 from a year earlier
Consumer sentiment indexOct 2023 – Sep 2026
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was 48.1 in September. Readings below about 80 have usually meant most people think the economy is doing poorly, whatever the official numbers say.
Why it matters: How people feel about the economy often matters more at the ballot box than the official statistics.
D+8.0which party voters prefer for Congress (52% D, 44% R)
Democratic minus Republican, weekly averageMay 2026 – Nov 2026
Asked which party they would back for Congress, 52% of voters say Democrats and 44% say Republicans, averaging the latest poll from each of 1 pollsters.
Why it matters: The generic ballot is the simplest national read on the parties' standing between elections.