VoteTide

2028 Presidential Election › Forecast

2028 presidential forecast

Who is more likely to win the White House, based on how states have voted, how the country feels about the economy and the president, and what prediction markets say. It is a forecast, not a prediction of certainty, and not an endorsement.

Updated Nov 4, 10:06 AM EST · 734 days until Election Day · How it works

Democrats76%
Republicans23%

Democrats win in about 8 of every 10 of our simulated elections. Democrats win a median of 312 electoral votes, with an 80% range of 232 to 412. An Electoral College tie happens in 0.3% of simulations.

Fundamentals aloneD 76%national D+5.9
Prediction markets—unavailable right now
VoteTide blendD 76%national D+5.9

The map

Alabama (9 EV): Safe R. Democrats 1%, Republicans 99%Alaska (3 EV): Lean R. Democrats 20%, Republicans 80%Arizona (11 EV): Toss-up. Democrats 60%, Republicans 40%Colorado (10 EV): Safe D. Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%Florida (30 EV): Lean R. Democrats 26%, Republicans 74%Georgia (16 EV): Lean D. Democrats 72%, Republicans 28%Indiana (11 EV): Likely R. Democrats 6%, Republicans 94%Kansas (6 EV): Likely R. Democrats 10%, Republicans 90%Maine (4 EV): Likely D. Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%Massachusetts (11 EV): Safe D. Democrats >99%, Republicans <1%Minnesota (10 EV): Likely D. Democrats 91%, Republicans 9%New Jersey (14 EV): Safe D. Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%North Carolina (16 EV): Lean D. Democrats 67%, Republicans 33%North Dakota (3 EV): Safe R. Democrats <1%, Republicans >99%Oklahoma (7 EV): Safe R. Democrats <1%, Republicans >99%Pennsylvania (19 EV): Lean D. Democrats 74%, Republicans 26%South Dakota (3 EV): Safe R. Democrats 1%, Republicans 99%Texas (40 EV): Lean R. Democrats 22%, Republicans 78%Wyoming (3 EV): Safe R. Democrats <1%, Republicans >99%Connecticut (7 EV): Safe D. Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%Missouri (10 EV): Likely R. Democrats 7%, Republicans 93%West Virginia (4 EV): Safe R. Democrats <1%, Republicans >99%Illinois (19 EV): Safe D. Democrats 98%, Republicans 2%New Mexico (5 EV): Likely D. Democrats 95%, Republicans 5%Arkansas (6 EV): Safe R. Democrats 1%, Republicans 99%California (54 EV): Safe D. Democrats >99%, Republicans <1%Delaware (3 EV): Safe D. Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%District of Columbia (3 EV): Safe D. Democrats >99%, Republicans <1%Hawaii (4 EV): Safe D. Democrats >99%, Republicans <1%Iowa (6 EV): Lean R. Democrats 21%, Republicans 79%Kentucky (8 EV): Safe R. Democrats 1%, Republicans 99%Maryland (10 EV): Safe D. Democrats >99%, Republicans <1%Michigan (15 EV): Lean D. Democrats 77%, Republicans 23%Mississippi (6 EV): Safe R. Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%Montana (4 EV): Likely R. Democrats 5%, Republicans 95%New Hampshire (4 EV): Likely D. Democrats 90%, Republicans 10%New York (28 EV): Safe D. Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%Ohio (17 EV): Lean R. Democrats 27%, Republicans 73%Oregon (8 EV): Safe D. Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%Tennessee (11 EV): Safe R. Democrats 1%, Republicans 99%Utah (6 EV): Safe R. Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%Virginia (13 EV): Likely D. Democrats 94%, Republicans 6%Washington (12 EV): Safe D. Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%Wisconsin (10 EV): Lean D. Democrats 76%, Republicans 24%Nebraska (5 EV): Safe R. Democrats 4%, Republicans 96%South Carolina (9 EV): Likely R. Democrats 9%, Republicans 91%Idaho (4 EV): Safe R. Democrats <1%, Republicans >99%Nevada (6 EV): Lean D. Democrats 71%, Republicans 29%Vermont (3 EV): Safe D. Democrats >99%, Republicans <1%Louisiana (8 EV): Safe R. Democrats 3%, Republicans 97%Rhode Island (4 EV): Safe D. Democrats 99%, Republicans 1%

Every possible outcome

Democratic electoral votes across all 20,000 simulations. Blue bars reach 270; red bars fall short.

Democrats win 0–9 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 10–19 electoral votes in 0.0% of simulationsDemocrats win 20–29 electoral votes in 0.0% of simulationsDemocrats win 30–39 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 40–49 electoral votes in 0.0% of simulationsDemocrats win 50–59 electoral votes in 0.0% of simulationsDemocrats win 70–79 electoral votes in 0.0% of simulationsDemocrats win 80–89 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 90–99 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 100–109 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 110–119 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 120–129 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 130–139 electoral votes in 0.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 140–149 electoral votes in 0.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 150–159 electoral votes in 0.3% of simulationsDemocrats win 160–169 electoral votes in 0.3% of simulationsDemocrats win 170–179 electoral votes in 0.5% of simulationsDemocrats win 180–189 electoral votes in 0.6% of simulationsDemocrats win 190–199 electoral votes in 1.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 200–209 electoral votes in 1.3% of simulationsDemocrats win 210–219 electoral votes in 1.8% of simulationsDemocrats win 220–229 electoral votes in 2.6% of simulationsDemocrats win 230–239 electoral votes in 2.8% of simulationsDemocrats win 240–249 electoral votes in 3.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 250–259 electoral votes in 3.9% of simulationsDemocrats win 260–269 electoral votes in 4.3% of simulationsDemocrats win 270–279 electoral votes in 5.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 280–289 electoral votes in 5.7% of simulationsDemocrats win 290–299 electoral votes in 5.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 300–309 electoral votes in 9.8% of simulationsDemocrats win 310–319 electoral votes in 8.4% of simulationsDemocrats win 320–329 electoral votes in 5.3% of simulationsDemocrats win 330–339 electoral votes in 5.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 340–349 electoral votes in 5.0% of simulationsDemocrats win 350–359 electoral votes in 3.5% of simulationsDemocrats win 360–369 electoral votes in 2.9% of simulationsDemocrats win 370–379 electoral votes in 2.9% of simulationsDemocrats win 380–389 electoral votes in 2.7% of simulationsDemocrats win 390–399 electoral votes in 2.3% of simulationsDemocrats win 400–409 electoral votes in 2.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 410–419 electoral votes in 2.3% of simulationsDemocrats win 420–429 electoral votes in 2.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 430–439 electoral votes in 1.5% of simulationsDemocrats win 440–449 electoral votes in 1.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 450–459 electoral votes in 1.0% of simulationsDemocrats win 460–469 electoral votes in 0.7% of simulationsDemocrats win 470–479 electoral votes in 0.5% of simulationsDemocrats win 480–489 electoral votes in 0.4% of simulationsDemocrats win 490–499 electoral votes in 0.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 500–509 electoral votes in 0.2% of simulationsDemocrats win 510–519 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 520–529 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulationsDemocrats win 530–538 electoral votes in 0.1% of simulations2700538← Republican winsDemocratic wins →

States that decide it

The tipping-point state is the one that delivers the 270th electoral vote. These are the states most likely to play that role.

  1. Pennsylvania19 EVLean D20% tipping point
  2. Georgia16 EVLean D16% tipping point
  3. North Carolina16 EVLean D14% tipping point
  4. Michigan15 EVLean D14% tipping point
  5. Wisconsin10 EVLean D10% tipping point
  6. Arizona11 EVToss-up8% tipping point
  7. Nevada6 EVLean D5% tipping point
  8. Minnesota10 EVLikely D3% tipping point

All states

StateEVForecastChanceMarkets
District of Columbia3D+89.8D >99%—
Vermont3D+38.4D >99%—
Maryland10D+35.6D >99%—
Massachusetts11D+33.2D >99%—
Hawaii4D+30.5D >99%—
California54D+28.2D >99%—
Washington12D+24.3D 99%—
Connecticut7D+21.8D 99%—
Delaware3D+21.7D 99%—
Rhode Island4D+21.4D 99%—
New York28D+21.1D 99%—
Oregon8D+20.6D 99%—
Illinois19D+18.3D 98%—
Colorado10D+17.5D 98%—
New Jersey14D+14.3D 96%D 96%
Maine4D+13.2D 95%D 78%
New Mexico5D+13.0D 95%D 87%
Virginia13D+12.7D 94%D 88%
Minnesota10D+10.7D 91%D 83%
New Hampshire4D+9.9D 90%D 59%
Michigan15D+5.5D 77%D 73%
Wisconsin10D+5.3D 76%—
Pennsylvania19D+4.9D 74%D 70%
Georgia16D+4.3D 72%D 86%
Nevada6D+4.1D 71%D 75%
North Carolina16D+3.1D 67%D 70%
Arizona11D+1.8D 60%D 79%
Ohio17R+4.6R 73%D 52%
Florida30R+4.8R 74%D 51%
Texas40R+5.9R 78%D 49%
Iowa6R+6.1R 79%D 52%
Alaska3R+6.4R 80%D 42%
Kansas6R+9.9R 90%—
South Carolina9R+10.4R 91%—
Missouri10R+11.8R 93%—
Indiana11R+12.4R 94%—
Montana4R+13.1R 95%—
Nebraska5R+14.3R 96%—
Louisiana8R+15.4R 97%—
Utah6R+15.5R 97%—
Mississippi6R+15.5R 97%—
Tennessee11R+22.2R 99%—
South Dakota3R+22.6R 99%—
Alabama9R+23.5R 99%—
Kentucky8R+23.6R 99%—
Arkansas6R+24.0R 99%—
Oklahoma7R+28.2R >99%—
Idaho4R+29.2R >99%—
North Dakota3R+29.8R >99%—
West Virginia4R+35.3R >99%—
Wyoming3R+39.4R >99%—

Maine and Nebraska split some electoral votes by congressional district; this version gives each state's votes to its statewide winner.

Join Kalshi →Some market links are referral links: VoteTide may earn a fee if you sign up. It never changes the odds we show.

How the forecast works

We publish every input and weight so anyone can check the math. The model is intentionally simple: with two years to go and no nominees, a complicated model would mostly add false precision.

1. Where each state starts

Each state's lean is how much more Democratic or Republican it voted than the country as a whole: 75% from 2024 (national margin R+1.5) and 25% from 2020 (D+4.5). Pennsylvania, for example, has a lean of R+1.0.

2. The national environment

The national margin comes from three “fundamentals” that have historically moved presidential elections. Each is judged against the party that holds the White House (Republicans), so good numbers help Republicans and bad numbers help Democrats:

InputNowRuleEffect
Presidential approval-26.1 net0.2 pts per point of net approvalD+5.2
Inflation3.7% a year0.8 pts per point above 2.5%D+1.0
Unemployment change-0.2 pts in a year1.5 pts per point of riseEven
Fundamentals totalcapped at ±10D+5.9

3. Prediction markets

Markets on which party wins the White House (Kalshi and Polymarket) capture information polls and economic data miss, like who the likely nominees are. We convert the market price into the national margin that would produce the same chance in our model, then average it 50/50 with the fundamentals. When markets are unavailable, the forecast uses fundamentals alone.

4. Simulating the election

We run 20,000 simulated elections. Each one adds three kinds of surprise: a national swing (typical size ±7.0 pts), a regional swing shared by neighboring states (±2.5) and a swing for each state (±4.0). The errors use a fat-tailed distribution, so big upsets happen more often than a bell curve would suggest. These ranges shrink automatically as the election gets closer.

What this does not do yet

  • No candidate effects. Until the parties pick nominees, it is a generic Democrat against a generic Republican.
  • No head-to-head polls yet. We will add state and national polling averages once there are enough general-election polls of the likely nominees.
  • It ignores Maine's and Nebraska's district electoral votes and third-party candidates.
  • The weights are set by judgment and common findings in political science, not fitted to past elections, so treat the exact percentages loosely.

Sources

  • Approval: average of recent public polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0), 2 pollsters, latest 2026-10-06. See the approval tracker.
  • Inflation: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI via FRED, 2026-09: 3.7%.
  • Unemployment: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, 4.2% (−0.2 in a year).
  • Past results: official 2024 and 2020 presidential results by state.
  • Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket public prices, refreshed with this page every 30 minutes.

Questions

Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?

VoteTide's forecast gives Democrats a 76% chance and Republicans a 23% chance as of Nov 4, 10:06 AM EST. With 734 days to go and no nominees yet, the uncertainty is wide.

How does the VoteTide forecast work?

It starts from how each state voted relative to the country in 2024 and 2020, estimates the national environment from presidential approval, inflation and unemployment, blends that with prediction-market prices, and simulates the election 20,000 times with national, regional and state-level uncertainty.

See what could move these numbers on What's moving the race, follow the nomination odds, or make your own call on the 2028 map.